Frost dates for Tempe, Arizona
Arizona · first & last freeze, from NOAA 1991–2020 climate normals
In a typical year, the last spring freeze around Tempe comes near February 13 and the first fall freeze near December 5. One year in ten, a freeze still arrives after March 9 in spring — and one year in ten, the first fall freeze has already landed by November 18. NCEI's own growing-season statistic (days between freezes, percentiled per year) puts the median at 298 days.
Freeze-date probabilities, three thresholds
| Threshold | Last spring — 9 in 10 years past by | Last spring — typical (median) | Last spring — 1 in 10 years later than | First fall — 1 in 10 years by | First fall — typical (median) | First fall — 9 in 10 years by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F — near-freezing (frost can occur) | February 14 | March 8 | April 7 | November 7 | November 26 | December 9 |
| 32°F — freezing | January 12 | February 13 | March 9 | November 18 | December 5 | December 24 |
| 28°F — hard freeze | December 19 | January 16 | February 19 | November 27 | December 19 | January 19 |
Measured at Tempe Asu, AZ (USC00028499), 2.7 mi from the city's census reference point, elev. 1,167 ft. NOAA/NCEI 1991–2020 normals. Read each date column as odds over the 30-year record — e.g. "9 in 10 years past by" means only one spring in ten saw a later freeze than that date.
Frost-free windows (computed)
| Window (32°F ends) | Opens | Closes | Length |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious (1-in-10 freeze risk at each end) | March 9 | November 18 | 254 days |
| Typical (median freeze dates) | February 13 | December 5 | 295 days |
| Gambler's (9-in-10 freeze risk at each end) | January 12 | December 24 | 346 days |
Pure arithmetic on the freeze-date percentiles above — the "cautious" window opens on the date only 1 year in 10 still sees a later spring freeze, and closes on the date by which only 1 year in 10 has already frozen.
About this city's numbers
- Census entity: Tempe city, Arizona — official 2024 population estimate 190,114.
- Weather station: Tempe Asu, AZ (USC00028499), 2.7 mi from the city's census-gazetteer reference point at elevation 1,167 ft. Frost dates are that station's history — neighborhoods vary.
- Data pulled 2026-09-05; normals period 1991-2020 (replaced by NOAA roughly once a decade).
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