Frost dates for Waco, Texas
Texas · first & last freeze, from NOAA 1991–2020 climate normals
In a typical year, the last spring freeze around Waco comes near March 9 and the first fall freeze near November 20. One year in ten, a freeze still arrives after April 4 in spring — and one year in ten, the first fall freeze has already landed by November 2. NCEI's own growing-season statistic (days between freezes, percentiled per year) puts the median at 256 days.
Freeze-date probabilities, three thresholds
| Threshold | Last spring — 9 in 10 years past by | Last spring — typical (median) | Last spring — 1 in 10 years later than | First fall — 1 in 10 years by | First fall — typical (median) | First fall — 9 in 10 years by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F — near-freezing (frost can occur) | March 2 | March 24 | April 13 | October 26 | November 10 | November 27 |
| 32°F — freezing | February 17 | March 9 | April 4 | November 2 | November 20 | December 9 |
| 28°F — hard freeze | January 27 | February 25 | March 21 | November 12 | December 3 | January 1 |
Measured at Waco Dam, TX (USC00419417), 3.4 mi from the city's census reference point, elev. 495 ft. NOAA/NCEI 1991–2020 normals. Read each date column as odds over the 30-year record — e.g. "9 in 10 years past by" means only one spring in ten saw a later freeze than that date.
Frost-free windows (computed)
| Window (32°F ends) | Opens | Closes | Length |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious (1-in-10 freeze risk at each end) | April 4 | November 2 | 212 days |
| Typical (median freeze dates) | March 9 | November 20 | 256 days |
| Gambler's (9-in-10 freeze risk at each end) | February 17 | December 9 | 295 days |
Pure arithmetic on the freeze-date percentiles above — the "cautious" window opens on the date only 1 year in 10 still sees a later spring freeze, and closes on the date by which only 1 year in 10 has already frozen.
About this city's numbers
- Census entity: Waco city, Texas — official 2024 population estimate 146,608.
- Weather station: Waco Dam, TX (USC00419417), 3.4 mi from the city's census-gazetteer reference point at elevation 495 ft. Frost dates are that station's history — neighborhoods vary.
- Data pulled 2026-09-05; normals period 1991-2020 (replaced by NOAA roughly once a decade).
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